Another quarter, another record.
growing rapidly, despite a global automotive shortage of semiconductors that is shaking production.
The electric vehicle pioneer reported a record quarter on Saturday with deliveries of more than 70% compared to the previous year. Calling the stock reaction on Monday is a coin toss, but one day’s stock performance doesn’t matter. However, heavy deliveries usually mean good news for Tesla cops on the road.
Tesla (ticker: TSLA) delivered 241,300 vehicles in the third quarter of 2021, up from around 201,000 in the second quarter of the year and up from around 140,000 deliveries in the third quarter of 2020. Wall Street was looking for around 225, 0000 to 230,000 vehicle deliveries.
Tesla produced nearly 238,000 vehicles in the third quarter. Production and delivery – to the customer – are typically close together.
To date, Tesla has delivered more than 627,000 vehicles, almost 100% more than in 2020.
Results should be good enough to keep the stock stable on Monday. The stronger response to heavy shipments typically comes in the weeks after the numbers are published.
Tesla stock has outperformed that
six of the last eight times in the period between reporting the deliveries and reporting the quarterly results. Quarterly earnings come about three or four weeks after the delivery result.
Quarterly deliveries have set new records in seven of the last eight quarters. That’s not surprising for a growth stock like Tesla. Record deliveries, however, don’t always mean Tesla stock will rise immediately after a quarterly release. Of course, expectations are more important than the actual number. And expectations of deliveries in the third quarter have risen.
The expectations for deliveries in the third quarter have risen in the last few weeks from around 220,000 to 225,000 to 225,000 to 230,000. In fact, rising expectations are a big reason for Tesla stock’s recent outperformance.
Tesla stock has looked remarkably stable in the face of recent market volatility. Shares were up 0.1% over the past week. the
fell 3.2% over the same period. The S&P 500 is 2.2%. Additionally, Tesla stock rose about 5% in September. The Nasdaq lost 5%. Inventory of a Chinese electric vehicle manufacturer
(NOK) fell 9%.
Investors are also used to good news. Tesla stock rose 4.4% after shipments were reported in the first quarter of 2021. Shares rose just 0.1% after deliveries were reported in the second quarter. The second quarter, another record, was the first time Tesla cracked 200,000 vehicle deliveries.
Overall, Tesla appears to have passed the delivery test in the third quarter. And more cars shipped should lead analysts to raise earnings estimates for third-quarter results. That could be why Tesla stock is strong after earnings.
But good news can only be good news.
Before the winnings, Tesla holds its annual meeting on October 7th. At this event, investors would like to hear about the ramp-up of production in the company’s two new plants in Texas and Germany.
Write to Al Root at firstname.lastname@example.org